国际科学理事会顶尖科学家：实现1.5℃控温目标仍困难重重

近日，在《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次缔约方会议（#COP26）上，联合国秘书长及各国领导人均发出倡议呼吁共同实现1.5℃的控温目标。但实际上，各国是否在朝这个方向努力？实现这一目标的过程中，我们面临哪些挑战？疫情之下，我们该如何通力团结，推动目标实现？由中国科学院主办的国际科学理事会城市健康与福祉会议（UHWB）于近期举行，4位城市环境及公共卫生领域的世界顶尖参会科学家接受王冠邀约做客舆论纵贯线，一起来听听他们的回答。

"Meeting the 1.5°C target is challenging and requires dramatic efforts instead of incremental steps." That's the message from a select group of global scientists in an interview with Wang Guan, on the sideline of The International Science Council's Conference on Urban Health and Wellbeing(UHWB), hosted by the Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The conference coincided with the ongoing COP 26 meeting in Glasgow, the UK, where keeping the 1.5°C goal alive has been a major call from global leaders. What challenges are we still facing? And how shall we figure out and more importantly, implement the solutions? Check it out in this episode of The Hub with Wang Guan.

Wang Guan: At the ongoing COP 26 in Glasgow, the UK, there had been repeated calls from UN Secretary General, from prime ministers, presidents for meeting the goal of 1.5 °C's cap. Do you see that happening? Let me start with you, Philippa.

王冠：在英国格拉斯哥举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次缔约方会议上，联合国秘书长、各国总统、总理多次呼吁要实现1.5℃的控温目标。各位认为各国是否正在朝这个方向努力？菲利帕，先请你分享观点吧。

Philippa Howden-Chapman: I think we've got a hard road ahead of us, because we have to dramatically drop 50% of our carbon emissions really by 2030. That means we have to take large steps, not incremental steps. And it's great to see China committing to be carbon neutral by 2060, because I think the big countries have got to show the way. We know that if we cut, reduce the cars in our cities by congestion charging or making it like the British that you can't buy fossil fuel vehicles after 2030, then people take public transport, like rail, cycle, walk, and that has benefits for people's health and wellbeing. So if we can agree to work together and we can get the social license to do it both within countries, within cities and between governments who see that we've got to have some global governments here, if we're going to make that – stop the world being an inferno.

菲利帕·豪登-查普曼：我认为要实现这一目标依然任重道远，因为我们必须在2030年之前大幅减少50%的碳排放量。这意味着我们必须采取大刀阔斧的措施，而不是亦步亦趋地采取行动。令人欣慰的是，中国承诺到2060年实现碳中和，大国应当像这般做出表率、体现担当。如果我们想要减少城市车辆数，可以收取交通拥堵费或像英国那样规定2030年后禁售燃油车，人们就会更多地选择乘坐公共交通工具，比如乘地铁，或是骑自行车、步行，这有益于人们的健康和福祉。如果各国能够携手合作，我们便可以在国家间、城市间及政府间争取相关政策的社会许可，让民众认识到只有世界各国政府联合行动起来，才能共同阻止地球成为人间炼狱。

Wang Guan: Franz, you have been studying and advocating a "systems approach" regarding urban health and wellbeing. What exactly is a "systems approach"? And why is that important?

王冠：范天蓝教授，你一直在研究和推广促进城市健康与福祉的“系统化方法”。这个“系统化方法”究竟包含哪些内容？它的重要性体现在哪些方面？

Franz W. Gatzweiler: I think the urban health community and the concept of urban health may have started off as trying to understand what makes healthy life in cities. And there are obvious health benefits from living in cities, like living in good homes, well-heated homes in winter, eating healthy food, having access to transportation and breathing clean air and so on. We have a pretty good understanding of that kind of health in cities. But there are also other invisible factors like the urban micro biome or mental health in cities, and other social determinants of health which we are just starting to understand. But then if we go a step further towards this, what you mentioned the "systems approach", it is really understanding health more as an interdisciplinary and integrated concept. It's not just about human health in the urban environment, but it's also the health of the urban environment, the health of cities and healthy environments.

范天蓝：我认为城市健康社区和城市健康等概念起初可能是为了让人们理解城市健康生活的含义而提出的。住在城市里对健康有明显的好处，比如住房条件更好、冬季有供暖、饮食更健康、交通便利、空气洁净等等。我们都很清楚城市生活所能带来的这些健康益处。但城市生活中也存在其他无形因素，如城市微生物群落，或是城市人群心理健康，以及其他影响人类健康的社会因素，我们近来才对这些因素有所了解。但如果我们更进一步去看，你刚才提到的“系统化方法”，它实际上更多地是把健康理解为一个跨学科的综合概念。这个概念不仅关乎城市环境中的人类健康，也关乎城市环境的健康、城市的健康和环境的健康。

Wang Guan: Doctor Zhu, how much urban green space do city dwellers need to be healthy? And why is the connection to rural and suburban areas so important?

王冠：朱博士，需要多少城市绿色空间城市居民才能保持身心健康？为什么与乡村和郊区的连接如此重要？

Zhu Yongguan: Thank you. Scientifically, it's a big question, because we still don't know how sufficient green space is sufficient for a healthy urban environment. But in general, I think the scientific community is gaining lots of data to support that the more green space we can bring to the cities, the much healthier the city is. And also because people are all coming from the nature. We have our so called "old friends". These "old friends" are in the nature – the microbes. We can't see them, but they are everywhere. So if you visit like a green park, you will expose yourself to the natural microbial community. So you're likely to have much healthier microbial community on your skin, or even in your gut. And also by having healthy food, you will improve your microbial community in your gut. And we know now that the gut micro biome has some linkage with our brain, with our other organs in the body. So overall, I think we need to get in touch with the nature again, because general urbanization has cut the human-nature contact greatly, but we should restore that.

朱永官：感谢你的提问。从科学角度来说，这是一个大问题。因为我们仍然不清楚，要打造一个健康的城市环境，究竟需要建设多少绿色空间。但总的来说，我认为目前科学界收集到的大量数据表明城市内部的绿色空间越多，城市就越健康。我们人类从大自然而来，而我们身边有这样一群“老朋友”，这些“老朋友”存在于自然界中，它们就是微生物。我们看不到它们，但它们无处不在。如果你去到一个绿色生态公园这样的地方，你就会接触到自然界的微生物群。这些更有益于健康的微生物群可能会落在你的皮肤上，甚至肠道中。此外，通过吃健康的食物，你的肠道微生物群也会得到改善。我们现在也认识到，肠道微生物群与大脑及其他器官存在某种联系。总之，我认为我们需要重新与大自然接触，过去全面的城镇化发展大幅削弱了人与自然之间的联系，而我们应该重建这一联结。

Wang Guan: Get back in touch with nature sounds great to me. I'm a big fan of letting scientists speak on scientific matters, instead of letting politicians speak about those issues. So it's a rare occasion to have all of you here today joining us on The Hub on CGTN, any one last thought you want to share with our audience, Carlos?

王冠：重建人与自然的联系，我十分赞同。我认为应该让科学家来谈论科学问题，而不是让政客来指手画脚。今天难得邀请到各位顶尖科学家做客“舆论纵贯线”。卡洛斯，最后你还有什么想与观众分享的内容吗？

Carlos Dora: I think the human connection – the connection that we have with others – is something very essential to our own wellbeing, in addition to linking with nature and getting engaged in transforming and improving your local environment with others who live in the same and share the same local environment, I think, is one of the things that can help us move beyond the barriers of the transition to a greener economy. It's not all about the economy. It's not all about what's external. It's also about the internal. And the connections and the linkages that we build with others, I think are parts of the solution. And I think the COVID has started this: we share more; we now made neighbors to be understood better. Where we live is important to our own health, and to the health of others. So that idea of solidarity and building together a better future is something which is a key ingredient for moving towards a better model of development.

卡洛斯·多拉：我认为人与人之间的联系，即我们与他人建立的联系对我们自己的健康福祉也非常重要。除了要重建人与自然的联系，我们也要与生活在同一地区的人们共同参与到转变和改善当地环境的进程中，从而共建当地环境，帮助我们跨越障碍，实现绿色经济转型。这不仅仅是经济问题，也不仅仅关乎人类与外界建立联系。它也关乎人类群体内部的联系。人与人之间的联系和往来我认为这也是解决方案的一部分。而新冠肺炎疫情是重要的触发因素：我们现在交流分享的内容更多；邻里之间的相互理解不断加深。我们的居住环境对我们自己和他人的健康都有重要意义。团结一致共建美好未来的理念是我们得以转向更佳发展模式的关键因素。